Big Three Bailout—Good Money After Bad?

November 19, 2008

Three of the most thoughtful and philosophically grounded conservative pundits—David Brooks, Pat Buchanan, and George Will—have weighed in on the proposed bailout of the Big Three American auto makers.

Brooks, in Bailout to Nowhere, argues that the free market should be allowed to work its “creative destruction” on the automakers. That’s how capitalism works, says Brooks. Those who made the best and most forward-thinking decisions deserve to reap the benefits of that foresight; those who made poor decisions must be made to suffer the consequences, in this case, bankruptcy.

Brooks makes the case against the bailout by appealing to the dynamism that “creative destruction” brings to a capitalist economy:

This is an excruciatingly hard call. A case could be made for keeping the Big Three afloat as a jobs program until the economy gets better and then letting them go bankrupt. But the most persuasive experts argue that bankruptcy is the least horrible option. Airline, steel and retail companies have gone through bankruptcy proceedings and adjusted. It would be a less politically tainted process. Government could use that $50 billion — and more — to help the workers who are going to be displaced no matter what.

But the larger principle is over the nature of America’s political system. Is this country going to slide into progressive corporatism, a merger of corporate and federal power that will inevitably stifle competition, empower corporate and federal bureaucrats and protect entrenched interests? Or is the U.S. going to stick with its historic model: Helping workers weather the storms of a dynamic economy, but preserving the dynamism that is the core of the country’s success.

George Will agrees with Brooks. In “In Detroit, Failure’s a Done Deal,” Will notes that the automakers have already failed, and that they’re not “too big to fail.” The question, Will asserts, is what should be done about those failures?

The answer? Do nothing that will delay bankrupt companies from filing for bankruptcy protection, so that improvident labor contracts can be unraveled, allowing the companies to try to devise plausible business models. Instead, advocates of a “rescue” propose extending to Detroit the government’s business model for the nation — redistributing wealth from the successful to the failed, an implausible formula for prosperity….

…a “rescue” without bankruptcy will make those four entities wards of government. Doing so would make the five entities (including Washington) collaborators in unfair competition with America’s thriving automobile industry that employs 113,000 Americans making vehicles containing many American-made components, but with foreign, mostly Japanese, nameplates. As Detroit continues to shrink, many American jobs “lost” will be regained in this industry, and its American suppliers, as Americans continue to buy cars.

Like Brooks, Will has faith in the market’s ability to adjust to a new circumstance in a rational way. The result may be painful for many, but good for all in the end.

The dissenting voice among the Big Three Conservative Thinkers is Pat Buchanan. Ever the champion of the industrial base and the working class, Buchanan, in “As GM Goes, So Goes the GOP,” writes:

When workers, execs, engineers, dealers, salesmen and suppliers are all factored in, the Big Three employ 3 million people who contribute $21 billion a year to Social Security and Medicare, and $25 billion in federal income taxes. Add in all the businesses that depend on the auto industry, and we are talking about one-tenth of the U.S. labor force….to let the auto industry die is to write America out of much of the economic future of the planet.

But Buchanan doesn’t suggest a simple bailout like the one offered to the financial industry. Instead, he favors trade restrictions aimed at giving American automakers an advantage, or at least an even playing field, compared to foreign automakers:

Nancy Pelosi is talking about tying loans to a restructuring of the industry. But Congress is not competent to do that.

What needs to be restructured is the U.S. tax-and-trade regime.

Dump globalism. Instruct Japan, Canada, Korea, Germany and China that if they wish to sell cars here, they will assemble them here and produce the parts here. And we shall have the same free access to and same share of their auto market as they have of ours.

To accomplish this, use the same import quotas and tariffs Ronald Reagan used to save the steel industry and Harley-Davidson.

Reciprocal trade. Even Democrats like FDR used to practice it.

Brooks, Buchanan, and Will all agree that writing another blank check isn’t in the best interests of the taxpayer, the nation, or the automakers themselves. Other means to the same end—a vibrant, comepetitive US auto industry—make more sense.

While these three conservatives should be heeded, a fourth voice with more experience in business and a background in Detroit puts it more bluntly and adds some much-needed specificity. Mitt Romney, whose father George helped save American Motors five decades ago, believes a bailout would be ruinous. In “Let Detroit Go Bankrupt,” he writes:

IF General Motors, Ford, and Chrysler get the bailout that their chief executives asked for yesterday, you can kiss the American automotive industry goodbye. It won’t go overnight, but its demise will be virtually guaranteed.

Without that bailout, Detroit will need to drastically restructure itself. With it, the automakers will stay the course — the suicidal course of declining market shares, insurmountable labor and retiree burdens, technology atrophy, product inferiority and never-ending job losses. Detroit needs a turnaround, not a check.

Romney proceeds to give sage advice to both government and industry, the goal being to end competitive disadvantages under which US automakers have worked, to rethink the management/labor dynamic (under new management!), and to target government investment in ways that will help ensure the long term success of the Big Three. In the end, Romney says “yes” to government involvement, but “no” to a cash bailout: 

It is not wrong to ask for government help, but the automakers should come up with a win-win proposition. I believe the federal government should invest substantially more in basic research — on new energy sources, fuel-economy technology, materials science and the like — that will ultimately benefit the automotive industry, along with many others. I believe Washington should raise energy research spending to $20 billion a year, from the $4 billion that is spent today. The research could be done at universities, at research labs and even through public-private collaboration. The federal government should also rectify the imbedded tax penalties that favor foreign carmakers.

But don’t ask Washington to give shareholders and bondholders a free pass — they bet on management and they lost.

The American auto industry is vital to our national interest as an employer and as a hub for manufacturing. A managed bankruptcy may be the only path to the fundamental restructuring the industry needs. It would permit the companies to shed excess labor, pension and real estate costs. The federal government should provide guarantees for post-bankruptcy financing and assure car buyers that their warranties are not at risk.

In a managed bankruptcy, the federal government would propel newly competitive and viable automakers, rather than seal their fate with a bailout check.

Barack Obama clearly favors a bailout; a principled conservative opposition—not the short-sighted apologetics and obstructionism of talk radio—is needed to prevent Obama’s good intentions from leading the Big Three straight to Hell.

Newsprism


The Uphill Landslide

November 5, 2008

What began as a long shot candidacy in February 2006, announced in Abraham Lincoln’s Springfield, Illinois, ended last night with an unlikely victory.

Barack Obama’s 365-173 Electoral College victory was impressive enough. But winning three Southern states–Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida–was an accomplishment foreseen by few.

Obama’s other accomplishments are no less impressive: defeating the Clinton political machine; putting together the largest on-the-ground organization in American electoral history; raising three-quarters of a billion dollars, most of it in small individual contributions; running a nearly flawless campaign; and bringing together a coalition that transcends, at least on the surface, race, class, and ideology.

Last night in Chicago’s Grant Park, Obama bookended his campaign with an acceptance speech that was conciliatory and, while taking a realistic tone in challenging times, oozed with optimism.

Obama’s margin of victory was nowhere near those that brought Reagan to power in two of the nation’s most lopsided landslides (489-49 in 1980, 525-13 in 1984.)

Was Obama’s win a landslide?

Considering that his was a steep uphill struggle, yes.

Newsprism


In Defeat, John McCain Embodies Political Grace

November 4, 2008

John McCain’s concession speech tonight showed the kind of class and grace that all conservatives should emulate without reservation. He pledged his all to Barack Obama and urged his supporters to do the same.

In defeat, Mr. McCain put country first.

In her prescient book, Political Grace:What It Is and Why We Need It Now, Peggy Noonan calls on the nation to transcend the crass partisanship that has tarnished our politics in recent years. She rejects the divisiveness of both parties and condemns the way our last two presidents have demeaned the office by aggrandizing themselves.

At the beginning of McCain’s concession speech, many of his supporters booed any mention of the new president.

“Please, please,” McCain pleaded, holding out his hands, palms down, to silence the boos. This happened several times, and each time the boos grew quieter.

May McCain’s graceful reconciliation of his own disappointed supporters be a metaphor for a greater reconciliation to come.

Newsprism


Follow Real-Time Election Results Here

November 4, 2008

To follow the national election results online, your best bets are the cable news channels’ web sites. These news organizations are built for speed in a 24-hour news cycle; they’ll track national results more quickly than the broadcast networks or the print media.

MSNBC          CNN          FoxNews

To follow your state and local results, you can click on your state on the national map at any of the sites above. This will take you to either district-by-district (MSNBC) or county-by-county (CNN, FoxNews) results updated at regular intervals.

For more immediate and local results, Google the name of your state and (in quotation marks) “Secretary of State.” You’ll be directed to the main page for your state’s Secretary of State. Then find a link to election results, and you can follow the vote as it’s tabulated in your state.

Be patient! People all across the country and around the world are online watching these results.

Newsprism


Hey Joe, Pass the Cheetos

November 3, 2008

I’d like to call out Joe Scarborough, host of MSNBC’s enlightening and entertaining Morning Joe. (Where else can you find Pat Buchanan and Peggy Noonan conversing with Zbigniew Brzezinski over a hot cup of coffee?)

While I love the show, Joe does take great pleasure in ridiculing us bloggers, whom he caricatures as sitting in our underwear in our parents’ basements, eating Cheetos and wiping Cheeto dust on our bare chests as we spew inanities. (See an example of Joe’s blogger-bashing here.)

Well, Joe, please find me one mainstream pundit who called this race as early or as accurately as Newsprism (apparently) did. And how is it that this Cheeto-dusted blogger got it right when you thought Obama didn’t have a chance? You said the idea that Obama could win was nothing but ”a leftist pundit’s dream.”

Nearly nine months ago, on February 13, Newsprism looked into our crystal ball and published “Prediction—Obama Landslide in November”. Our reasoning:

Barack Obama is inspirational and transformational without being confrontational…. he’ll defeat Hillary Clinton handily before the Democratic Convention, and then defeat John McCain handily in an historic election.

One reason is his natural charisma, that charming halo that’s been missing in American politics since Kennedy and Reagan were swept into the White House. Another is his skill at public speaking, which probably surpasses that of either JFK or Ronaldus Magnus. A third is his command of the issues, which belies his lack of experience.

These three reasons coalesce around an overriding consideration: history. Obama has the potential to restore our reputation around the world, to effectively erase the stain left by George Bush’s heavy-handed imperiousness. Obama could also unite the country by rejecting the politics of division, including the identity politics he pointedly rejects, in favor of inclusiveness and collegiality. And then there’s the potential election of our first non-white president. The nation’s demographic makeup, the implosion of the Republican Party, and the sentiments of most independent voters all favor Obama; the times they are a-changin’. To many, he’s the right man at the right moment.

We added to our rationale on March 3 in “The Reagan Factor—Why Obama Will Win”. Some excerpts:

The right risks losing the White House in a landslide if it keeps “misunderestimating” Senator Obama. He is, like Reagan, a master of the rhetoric of hope and optimism. After seven years of the worst leadership in a century, the time is ripe for such a leader, just as it was after four years of Jimmy Carter’s weakness and malaise, or before that, five years of Nixon’s paranoia and criminality. When times are darkest, we are most drawn to the light.

In addition to that optimism, both Reagan and Obama match(ed) rhetoric with demeanor. The resemblance is hard to miss: a ready smile, a confident carriage, a sense of humor, a calm generosity towards the opposition, a face that beams with vitality and benevolence, an undeniable charisma….

…(A) candidate who convincingly promises better times and the renewal of hope and pride is hard to beat. Add a dash of charisma, and you have the potential for a landslide, just like we saw in 1980.

Reagan rose to power at just the right historical moment. Obama has a similar opportunity to make history. He offers, quite literally, a new face to show a world weary of George Bush’s reckless and unilateral foreign policy. He offers a new face to show that America has overcome racial prejudice and elected a nonwhite president.

Republicans have been looking for another Reagan, and they’ve found one—on the other side of the aisle.

Were Newsprism’s predictions right? We’ll all know tomorrow evening.

Newsprism

Update: Obama wins in a landslide, taking the Electoral College by nearly 200 votes, 364-174.

Hey Joe–pass the Cheetos.


God and the Dole Affair—Has Even HE Abandoned the Republicans?

November 3, 2008

Ever since liberal courts took prayer out of public schools and legalized abortion on demand, the Republican Party has enjoyed a near monopoly on the “God vote.” Not just evangelicals, but also more mainstream Christians found a home with the pro-prayer, pro-Ten Commandments, pro-life GOP.

The God vote has been slowly abandoning the Republicans over the last eight years or so. What could have caused this shifting tide to move, if not towards the Democrats, at least away from the Republicans?

Could it be torture? Seeing images of sexual abuse of detainees at Abu Ghraib? The feces smeared on the naked bodies of those detainees? Detainees held indefinitely in what look more like dog pens than jail cells in Guantanamo? The scandals involving homophobic homosexuals and anti-drug abuse drug abusers? The more numerous scandals involving bribery, lobbying, and unethical legislation? The launching of an unjust war based on, at best, a shaky premise, and at worse, outright deception? Turning a blind eye to global climate change? Enriching the already rich while ignoring the poorest of the poor? Katrina? In each case, it’s not hard to figure out What Would Jesus Do.

As this election wraps up, Senator Elizabeth Dole has taken a page out of Ann Coulter’s playbook (Coulter wrote a book, Godless, in which she, of all people, essentially declared God the sole property of conservatives). Last week, Dole attempted to associate her opponent, state Senator Kay Hagan, with an atheist group.

The ad ends with an unnamed voice, presumably Hagan’s (it’s not), proclaiming, “There is no God.”

Hagan responded with an ad in which she says, “I believe in God. I taught Sunday School. My faith guides my life…. My campaign is about creating jobs and fixing our economy, not bearing false witness against fellow Christians.”

See both ads, and a newer Dole ad on the controversy, here.

Of couse, though many pretend to know the mind of God, no one can know if God has left the Republicans, or if He was ever with them.

It’s increasingly clear, however, that of late the Republicans have been leaving Him.

Newsprism

Update: Kay Hagan defeated Elizabeth Dole by a margin of 53-44%. Since the presidential race was a virtual dead heat, it’s clear that a substantial number of Republicans chose to repudiate Dole’s tactics. (Thank God.)


Colin Powell and Sam Nunn—Solid Anchors for an Obama Cabinet

November 1, 2008

Two suggestions for an Obama cabinet:

For Secretary of State, General Colin Powell

For Secretary of Defense, Senator Sam Nunn

Or the other way around…they’re both impeccably qualified for either role (or for any position in the Executive Branch, the presidency included.)

In foreign policy, the Powell Doctrine—which calls for using our military power only when overwhelming force can be applied to a specific, achievable objective with a clear exit strategy—has been proven prescient; under the Powell Doctrine, we would have stayed out of Iraq and concentrated our efforts on Afghanistan. Nunn’s general expertise in military issues and specific expertise in global nuclear proliferation are both sorely needed as we face the fallout of the Bush foreign policy, including a potential crisis with a nuclear-armed Pakistan.

 Obama may also consider a bolder move—appointing John McCain to one of those roles.

Newsprism