Stephen Colbert—the Man, the Myth, the Math

Stephen Colbert, named as one of TV News’ Ten Most Powerful people (actually, 13 were listed) last week, has long claimed that guest appearances on his Colbert Report get a “bump” in popularity. Now UC San Diego political science professor James Fowler (read his study) has apparently documented the bump as Democrats who appear on the show raise on average 44% more money after appearing than before. Republicans who appear see no change, however.

The late-night satirist made the so-called “Colbert Bump” famous when Republican Mike Hucakabee’s poll numbers jumped from 1% to 3% after an appearance, a “300%” bump according to Colbert (actually, that’s 200%.)

With a loyal audience of 1.3 million viewers called the “Colbert Nation,” Mr. Colbert exerts an even greater influence via the Internet. His ColberNation.com web site is wildly popular, and fans have put up a number of tribute sites including a ColbertBump.com web site, a wikipedia.com satire site called wikiality.com (here’s wikiality’s take on the Colbert bump), and a Bill O’Reilly spoof called the NoFact Zone. A Google search on his name now produces over 2.5 million results (actually, it’s 2,510,000+, and with the publication of this post, one more.)

Last night, Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, and John Edwards (video)—that’s three presidential contenders (actually, 2.5)—all appeared on the Report, which has been broadcasting live from Philadelphia all week, demonstrating that Colbert’s influence goes well beyond the size of his TV audience.

Why? There are at least two reasons. First, media research long ago documented the crucial effect of “opinion leaders,” people with expertise or stature who pass on media messages to others in a “two-step flow” of information. With its superior writing, timing, and satirical edge, The Colbert Report includes in its audience the cream of the crop of politicos and political junkies across the country. Second, Colbert is a master at using and manipulating the Internet, where many of the aforementioned opinion leaders surf and troll, routing his gospel to the wired masses.

Is there really a Colbert bump? Newsprism has investigated and found that concerning the performance of politicians in polls, the “bump” is probably a myth, but among authors who are interviewed on the show, it’s as real as it gets. Not surprisingly, liberal authors get the largest bump in book sales, while conservative authors actually seem to lose sales after appearances.

The bottom line: the funniest man in American politics should be taken very, very seriously.

Newsprism